where charlotte republicans go from here

A few days after the municipal election, The Charlotte Observer wrote a piece asking if this was the “final nail in the coffin” for Republicans in city races. This is the right question to be asking, and it certainly feels like it was.

As I set out to write a response, I really wanted to find a path for a Republican to win a race here in the next cycle. That path would be to follow the simple formula for winning elections: Make it hard to vote for your opponent, and easy to vote for you. Run somebody like Edwin Peacock III or Krista Bokhari again either at-large or in District 6, and then mount an extremely well-funded opposition campaign just absolutely tearing down the Democratic candidate.

At-large, that would look like trying to pick off one of the two lowest vote-getters — James “Smuggie” Mitchell or LaWana Mayfield, both of whom have significant baggage. I’m talking pouring $250,000+ into negative ads hitting unaffiliated voters again and again and again.

Here’s the thing, though. I don’t think even that would work. A decade ago, this could have worked, but now the numbers gap is just too wide. There’s really no way to make up a 40,000-vote gap in the at-large race, and I’m not convinced there’s enough money to make up a mind-boggling 4,000 vote gap in the District 6 race.

The truth is that until there’s another major realignment at the national level, it will be next to impossible for Republicans to win any kind of race in the city of Charlotte. Odds are that in 2027, the Charlotte City Council will follow the Mecklenburg County Board of Commissioners in going all-Democrat.

If you want to understand how Republicans actually win in this state, don’t turn on cable

news. Instead, slip past the hostess stand on a Tuesday night and push through the

swinging door to the back room.

There’s an American flag tucked between the ice machine and a few campaign signs

lean against the wall. You walk past a tray of hors'doeuvres to the box of name tags.

A school board candidate is working a row of chairs, shaking hands and practicing the

30 seconds that will either connect with people or fall flat.

Then a few minutes later the chairs tighten up, you stand, and a hundred hands go over

a hundred hearts for the Pledge of Allegiance. The Republican club meeting has begun.

I’ve spent the better part of a decade visiting Republican clubs across the state — the

ones that meet in American Legion halls, the back rooms of family restaurants, and the

occasional bar-and-grill.

These rooms are filled with the people who actually win elections: the folks who put out

yard signs, stand outside polling places, and knock on doors. There’s a reason sitting

members of Congress arrange their trips home around these meeting times.

And for candidates, these rooms are proving grounds, especially in primaries. You can

test a message, refine a stump speech, and practice retail politics in a friendly, low-

stakes setting where people “get it” enough to extend grace — but are removed enough

to offer honest feedback.

How Mecklenburg’s clubs work

Mecklenburg County shows how a full club ecosystem works when it’s humming. On

one side of the county, the Mint Hill/Matthews club keeps things neighbor-to-neighbor and hyper-local.

Up by Lake Norman, North Mecklenburg keeps fast-growing precincts organized and

turns newcomers into voters who actually show up. Queen City Republicans sets a

steady monthly beat inside Charlotte so people always know where to plug in.

Affinity clubs widen the coalition and sharpen skills: the Republican women’s clubs run

serious programming and training; the Charlotte Young Republicans bring in first-time staffers and future candidates.

RNHA-NC Mecklenburg builds leaders in a Latino community that’s growing every year;

Log Cabin Republicans remind us that limited government and individual liberty speak

to more people than Twitter would have you think.

And then there’s the Hornet’s Nest Republican Men’s Club — one of the largest in North Carolina — where the whole region comes together.

What do these clubs actually do? The unglamorous work that decides close races.

They host candidate nights and judicial forums where voters can ask real questions.

They run volunteer trainings and precinct meet-ups that turn enthusiasm into voter

contact. They staff registration tables, organize neighborhood canvasses, and fill poll-observer shifts.

They also build community — not just online, but with real fellowship that keeps people

coming back.

The rhythm is dependable: a useful speaker, a couple minutes of precinct business, a

clear ask, then unhurried conversation that forges the relationships campaigns lean on

when the calendar gets tight. That consistency is what flips close races and keeps judicial slates from getting lost in the noise.

Are clubs perfect? Of course not. Clubs are made of people, and people disagree.

Sometimes that turns into petty squabbles or side-quests that eat up time.

And yes, they can get overly fixated on national drama and forget the school board, the courts, and the county commission—the places where policy reaches real life. The best

clubs set guardrails: keep local first, argue hard on ideas, then “disagree and commit”

so the work keeps moving.

How we compare — and what to borrow

How do we in North Carolina stack up against other states? Florida’s strongest clubs

are braided tightly to their county parties. They think in seasons, not cycles: registration

drives in the spring, community festivals in the summer, voter-contact sprints in the

fall—with clear metrics at every step. Local Florida clubs working hand-in-glove with

county parties helped turn a 2020 97,000-voter deficit into roughly a 1,000,000-voter

GOP lead by 2024, powered by relentless, year-round outreach.

North Carolina is catching up here, but Florida’s year-round, numbers-driven culture is something we should borrow unapologetically.

Texas showcases professionalization—especially through Republican women’s

organizations. Meetings there often feel like miniature campaign schools: structured

agendas, trained parliamentarians, standardized volunteer onboarding, and a

fundraising culture where every gathering includes a specific financial goal.

North Carolina’s clubs excel at hospitality and turnout; we can raise our ceiling by

normalizing small-dollar habits (ten bucks a month, automated) and building repeatable

training modules.

Ohio offers a different lesson. Because voters aren’t registered by party, their clubs live

and breathe persuasion. They excel at the humble art of neighbor-to-neighbor politics:

quiet coffees, school-board canvasses, and precinct captains who can explain a judicial

race in two sentences.

Mecklenburg clubs already do parts of this well—especially on judicial education—but

we could adopt more of Ohio’s persuasion mindset in swing precincts, where clarity

beats volume every time.

Where North Carolina, and Mecklenburg in particular, quietly leads is density. In one

county you can find neighborhood clubs, women’s clubs, young Republicans, affinity

groups and a regional anchor that ties them together.

That means a candidate can spend one evening and meet the county’s core activists,

donors, and doers. That’s a competitive advantage in primaries and an insurance policy in close generals.

The bottom line

Every time I’m with Hornet’s Nest, I’m reminded that a well-run club is a kind of civic

school. It rewards normal, competent conservatism. It treats people with dignity. It does the unglamorous work that actually moves numbers.

Candidates plan their trips around your calendar for a reason. Keep setting the pace for Mecklenburg and beyond. What happens in these rooms decides who takes the oath

next January.

About Longleaf Politics — and a thank-you. Longleaf Politics exists to equip

thoughtful conservatives and build a smarter, stronger North Carolina — clear analysis,

practical strategy, and a bias for good governance. Thanks for the invitation to write this piece and for the work you do to keep the grassroots healthy.

A lot of what I publish is free, but as a small thank-you, Hornet’s Nest members can get

20% off a paid subscription here: https://www.longleafpol.com/hornetsnest